On July 14th, 2006, two days into Israel’s bombing campaign against Lebanon, Hezbollah announced a special televised address from Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. During his speech, he promised the Lebanese people a cathartic surprise. "Now, in the middle of the sea, facing Beirut, the Israeli warship that has attacked the infrastructure, people's homes, and civilians” he teed up, “look at it burning.” Viewers followed his instruction and looked onto the Mediterranean sea with disbelief when, right on Nasrallah’s cue, the Israeli naval vessel parked off their coast was suddenly engulfed by a bright orange fireball. Hezbollah’s anti-ship missiles, which Israelis were unsure they possessed until this strike, successfully penetrated the American-built Israeli warship, the INS Hanit, killing multiple sailors and decommissioning it for the rest of the war’s duration.
I always knew Israel deliberately targeted civilians to put pressure on their enemies, but I never knew it was literally their official military policy (Dahiya Doctrine). These people are absolute ghouls.
1 billion dollars spent already on US deterrence of Houthi forces and it failed to stop them from reducing container shipping through the Red Sea by 90% Massive L for American military, and I’m laughing.
There was a tiny backlash towards Israel’s actions from what I can remember, although the criticism was pretty mild. There will be an extremely negative reaction worldwide if they go on as they did in ‘06.
"The key to understanding Hezbollah’s approach to Israel is in Nasrallah’s view that Jews are weak and opportunistic bullies. Nasrallah holds that the Israeli public is a fragile “spider web,” one which constantly cries out for Arab blood but simultaneously has a low threshold for pain and inconvenience. By inflicting heavy military casualties and forcing Israelis in towns and cities either into bunkers or to flee their homes, Hezbollah believes the Zionist state can collapse under its internal contradictions"
This is how Islam view the jews cowards and addicted to controversy
Also your anysis about Lebanon internal issues is spot on, but Hezboallah has a strong hold internally and the other sects are not as strong as they were in the 80s and 90s.
US has a constrain,US doesn't want to break the existing situation in other countries like Iraq, the ambassador of US Alina L. Romanowski, happen to be jew, is controlling Iraq and in bed with the Iranian backed militias to stop any resurgence of arabs sunnis or any nationalist like "al baath"
Which is what iran wants too, that's why the iran backed militias and the Americans fought "isis", fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon will effect America's interest.
The complete faluire of IDF in Gaza was a shock to everybody in the region.. and no one knows what to do, usually everything in the middle east is calculated but not this time.
I wonder how the war would go if the US put troops on the ground.
The number of coaition troops in the 2003 iraq invasion was 170k. If Israel puts half its troops into a lebanon invasion, it gives 80k active and 230k reservists. This might be generous because some are injured or exhausted from the gaza war. Still, it gives a rough estimate of 500k troops (250k active).
On the Pro-hezbollah side, Hezbollah has 100k troops. Ssnp has 8k, iraq pmf has 100k, and the Irgc has 125k troops. This gives the directly relevant resistance about 330k active troops. The houthis also have 200k troops, but it's not clear if there's a way for them to reach lebanon. Syria has 130k troops and Iran's army has 300k troops, although maybe only a fraction would be committed to lebanon.
Overall, it seems like the resistance could match the active troop counts of a US ground force and Israel put together. Additionally, there are probably a lot of people living in lebanon, Syria, iraq, iran, and Afghanistan who would try to join the war and would have a safe and direct land path to lebanon.
I’m not sure of their current status/numbers, but there were Iranian-backed Afghan and Pakistani Shia militias that fought in Syria, initially as guard units to protect holy sites but eventually evolved into light infantry and even tank crews.
I always knew Israel deliberately targeted civilians to put pressure on their enemies, but I never knew it was literally their official military policy (Dahiya Doctrine). These people are absolute ghouls.
Thank you, Joseph!
1 billion dollars spent already on US deterrence of Houthi forces and it failed to stop them from reducing container shipping through the Red Sea by 90% Massive L for American military, and I’m laughing.
Balanced and well researched. I was unaware of the 2006 conflict.
There was a tiny backlash towards Israel’s actions from what I can remember, although the criticism was pretty mild. There will be an extremely negative reaction worldwide if they go on as they did in ‘06.
Excellent article as always
"The key to understanding Hezbollah’s approach to Israel is in Nasrallah’s view that Jews are weak and opportunistic bullies. Nasrallah holds that the Israeli public is a fragile “spider web,” one which constantly cries out for Arab blood but simultaneously has a low threshold for pain and inconvenience. By inflicting heavy military casualties and forcing Israelis in towns and cities either into bunkers or to flee their homes, Hezbollah believes the Zionist state can collapse under its internal contradictions"
This is how Islam view the jews cowards and addicted to controversy
Also your anysis about Lebanon internal issues is spot on, but Hezboallah has a strong hold internally and the other sects are not as strong as they were in the 80s and 90s.
US has a constrain,US doesn't want to break the existing situation in other countries like Iraq, the ambassador of US Alina L. Romanowski, happen to be jew, is controlling Iraq and in bed with the Iranian backed militias to stop any resurgence of arabs sunnis or any nationalist like "al baath"
Which is what iran wants too, that's why the iran backed militias and the Americans fought "isis", fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon will effect America's interest.
The complete faluire of IDF in Gaza was a shock to everybody in the region.. and no one knows what to do, usually everything in the middle east is calculated but not this time.
I wonder how the war would go if the US put troops on the ground.
The number of coaition troops in the 2003 iraq invasion was 170k. If Israel puts half its troops into a lebanon invasion, it gives 80k active and 230k reservists. This might be generous because some are injured or exhausted from the gaza war. Still, it gives a rough estimate of 500k troops (250k active).
On the Pro-hezbollah side, Hezbollah has 100k troops. Ssnp has 8k, iraq pmf has 100k, and the Irgc has 125k troops. This gives the directly relevant resistance about 330k active troops. The houthis also have 200k troops, but it's not clear if there's a way for them to reach lebanon. Syria has 130k troops and Iran's army has 300k troops, although maybe only a fraction would be committed to lebanon.
Overall, it seems like the resistance could match the active troop counts of a US ground force and Israel put together. Additionally, there are probably a lot of people living in lebanon, Syria, iraq, iran, and Afghanistan who would try to join the war and would have a safe and direct land path to lebanon.
I’m not sure of their current status/numbers, but there were Iranian-backed Afghan and Pakistani Shia militias that fought in Syria, initially as guard units to protect holy sites but eventually evolved into light infantry and even tank crews.
Very interesting article. Well said
A very informative article, you have my salutations joseph.
Well I'm titllated!
Very well written and thought out. One wonders- would the sudden, instantaneous nuking of Israel just cut the Gordian Knot of international conflict?
I think that it would. Humanity needs to move on from Zionism. A few million are holding back the hopes and dreams of 9 billion. The dam will bust.
Fantastic work. I sure love living in interesting times.