Earlier this week, Iranian-backed forces launched a drone attack that killed three US soldiers at the Tower 22 outpost in the sovereign nation of Jordan.
"There are many downsides to an Israeli offensive into Lebanon.
The Lebanese militia possesses supersonic missiles, suicide drones, and precision Fattah ballistic missiles that could unleash devastation on Haifa and Tel Aviv."
It is/was very difficult to push armaments into Gaza due to the fact that the Egyptians effectively isolate it.
This means that the small arms that made it in could only be confined to whatever you can get through smuggling tunnels, or what supplies survived racing for the beachs, which is fairly insignificant overall.
If you look at the biggest known successes of the Hamas militants against Israeli forces, what stands out to me is the Russian / Soviet Thermobaric ordinance deployed in Jabalya. This is man-portable tech, which wiped out an entire unit sheltering inside a damaged structure. You die with your lungs being burned from the inside out, essentially, and being inside of a armored vehicle or structure is no protection. This is dangerous to ground forces even on open Steppe Uke lands, but its almost ideal for deployment in a narrow channel advance terrain, such as S Lebanon.
The Israeli's have little ability to do more than knock out a fraction of supplies that go into Lebanon, unlike Gaza, meaning that TOS-1 / Sun for instance would create an almost suicidal approach for any Israeli infantry or armor, were it to be deployed in almost ideal circumstances.. The Hez forces can limit and channel the approaching armor and enforce Thermobaric ambushes which would cause catastrophic casualties, even repeatedly, depending on how long the launcher could survive in some sort of Zoo-Tower type encasement or shuttle firing positions.
It seems to me that the concern over the Hez missile threat may be secondary to this completely different class of weapons. Since we know that Gaza forces definitely had limited supplies of man-portable Thermobaric Rus ordnance, it is almost certain that Hez forces at least possess that same tech - probably in much greater quantity. The question that I don't think anyone knows for certain is whether they possess TOS-1 or export-similar that would fry entire units without needing to individually target any vehicles or troops, and this is also why you would relocate entire civilian towns or cities.
I don't see these launchers surviving very long on the battlefield without significant air defenses, but they don't really need to, because the damage that they can inflict would be so catastrophic and terminal that merely destroying them after the fact would not negate the damage. This concern for whether the Rus equip Hez and its allies with Thermobaric defenses against a ground incursion, to pay back Biden for the hundreds of thousands of Rus troops that he had killed with US munitions, is probably a strong factor in holding off on any new movements into Lebanon with ground forces, so far.
Excellent article as always, Joe. Please check the grammar in your title though.
What should i change it to? I published this in a rush.
America (not, American)
Fantastic article!
"There are many downsides to an Israeli offensive into Lebanon.
The Lebanese militia possesses supersonic missiles, suicide drones, and precision Fattah ballistic missiles that could unleash devastation on Haifa and Tel Aviv."
It is/was very difficult to push armaments into Gaza due to the fact that the Egyptians effectively isolate it.
This means that the small arms that made it in could only be confined to whatever you can get through smuggling tunnels, or what supplies survived racing for the beachs, which is fairly insignificant overall.
If you look at the biggest known successes of the Hamas militants against Israeli forces, what stands out to me is the Russian / Soviet Thermobaric ordinance deployed in Jabalya. This is man-portable tech, which wiped out an entire unit sheltering inside a damaged structure. You die with your lungs being burned from the inside out, essentially, and being inside of a armored vehicle or structure is no protection. This is dangerous to ground forces even on open Steppe Uke lands, but its almost ideal for deployment in a narrow channel advance terrain, such as S Lebanon.
The Israeli's have little ability to do more than knock out a fraction of supplies that go into Lebanon, unlike Gaza, meaning that TOS-1 / Sun for instance would create an almost suicidal approach for any Israeli infantry or armor, were it to be deployed in almost ideal circumstances.. The Hez forces can limit and channel the approaching armor and enforce Thermobaric ambushes which would cause catastrophic casualties, even repeatedly, depending on how long the launcher could survive in some sort of Zoo-Tower type encasement or shuttle firing positions.
It seems to me that the concern over the Hez missile threat may be secondary to this completely different class of weapons. Since we know that Gaza forces definitely had limited supplies of man-portable Thermobaric Rus ordnance, it is almost certain that Hez forces at least possess that same tech - probably in much greater quantity. The question that I don't think anyone knows for certain is whether they possess TOS-1 or export-similar that would fry entire units without needing to individually target any vehicles or troops, and this is also why you would relocate entire civilian towns or cities.
I don't see these launchers surviving very long on the battlefield without significant air defenses, but they don't really need to, because the damage that they can inflict would be so catastrophic and terminal that merely destroying them after the fact would not negate the damage. This concern for whether the Rus equip Hez and its allies with Thermobaric defenses against a ground incursion, to pay back Biden for the hundreds of thousands of Rus troops that he had killed with US munitions, is probably a strong factor in holding off on any new movements into Lebanon with ground forces, so far.